美国利率策略 · 关键原则而非前瞻性指引

关键论点

• 沃什对前瞻性指引尤其是危机期间使用的确定性预先承诺指引持深度批评态度，认为一旦经济正常化会导致政策错误。
• 基于预测的指引“在实验室中比在实际中效果更好”，因为FOMC成员持续预测通胀将回归2%，尽管疫情后出现迹象表明并非如此。
• 政策应以“关键原则”为指导，关注趋势而非孤立数据，通过短期利率实施，以PCE作为价格稳定衡量标准。
• 应关注中央银行创造的货币，可能指资产负债表规模，且工资对预测通胀的帮助较小。
• 这些原则不够详细，无法理解美联储如何应对不同情景，使美联储和市场陷入“镜像迷宫”。

对应原文证据

1. Warsh remains deeply critical of forward guidance particularly the sort used during the financial crisis and during COVID. He argues that deterministic, pre-committed guidance leads to policy errors once the economy normalizes as occurred after COVID. · medium_term
2. He argues that forecast-based guidance works “better in the lab than in the field” . For example, he notes that FOMC members consistently forecasted inflation would return to 2% despite signs it wasn’t after COVID. · medium_term
3. Instead, he believes policy should be guided by a set of “key principles” . This means putting more emphasis on “trends” rather than “isolated data”. Policy is implemented through changes in short-term interest rates; rather than QE. · medium_term