加拿大就业报告一塌糊涂 · 全球经济

关键论点

• 6.8万失业数据因抽样噪声和病假、学年安排等供给侧因素而不可信。
• 公共部门7万失业与其他证据矛盾，表明存在统计误差。
• 加拿大央行应关注通胀风险，而非这份充满噪声的就业报告。
• 行长麦克勒姆即将发表的讲话将是塑造市场预期的关键。

对应原文证据

1. That leans toward downside risk in September GDP pending activity readings, but solid upside to Q3 GDP overall since GDP is hours times labour productivity with the latter determined heavily by activity readings.
2. I believe that the BoC should fade this report and remain focused upon its inflation mandate.
3. Core CPI m/m SAAR has been running at 3%+ for four months and all measures of inflation are about on or above their 2% target in y/y or m/m SAAR terms.