SFIF评论：分化而非方向——我们如何布局破裂的全球利率周期

关键论点

• 澳大利亚通胀主要由供应侧和外部因素驱动（中东成本转嫁、燃油消费税减免到期），而国内增长（房地产、劳动力、生产率）正在放缓，造成政策两难。
• 澳洲联储可能在放缓的经济中加息，历史上这会压缩后续宽松周期的时间线，有利于澳大利亚久期在2027年初的降息周期中跑赢。
• 美国长端国债收益率面临财政赤字、债务超过40万亿美元以及发行量高企的结构性压力；回购操作的持久性有限。
• 美国和欧洲的盈亏平衡通胀率是本月表现最突出的资产，受益于真实通胀风险重新定价，并作为美联储信誉的对冲。
• 信用利差处于历史低位，容错空间极小；主要风险来自利率波动的溢出效应，而非基本面恶化。
• 日本利率：做空前端、做多后端表达了对日本央行政策正常化的预期，同时避免了长端供应风险。
• 澳大利亚信用市场保持韧性，能够吸收大规模供应而不出现无序重新定价，Alphabet创纪录的Kangaroo债券即为明证。
• 该基金因欧洲增长分化故事不够清晰而减少了欧洲久期敞口，仅持有短期欧洲信用。

对应原文证据

1. Long-end Treasuries were the more structurally significant story. The 30-year yield reached its highest level in nearly 20 years amid sustained pressure from fiscal deficit concerns, total public debt surpassing $40 trillion, and elevated corporate issuance competing for investor demand. · medium-term (6-12 months)
2. The primary risk channel is not credit fundamentals but a spillover from rates volatility — historically, a breakout in rate volatility has been the leading indicator for credit spread widening, rather than fundamental deterioration in issuer quality. · short-term (September)
3. The long UK rates position remains in place and continues to perform as intended – growth and inflation in the UK have stayed persistently soft, and we see no case for the Bank of England validating the term-premium-driven back-up that's lifted yields globally. · medium-term