外汇交易员：新一轮动荡令美元空头形势逆转

关键论点

• 美元上涨由经典避险驱动而非CPI数据，鉴于美元空头头寸拥挤，短线动能可能延续。
• 美联储会议预计不会带来利好美元的意外，沃什主席希望避免前瞻指引，鸽派情景是更大的风险。
• 日本央行加息已被完全定价，若美元持续走强，美元兑日元升破155.00可能引发日元空头挤压。
• 欧元兑美元跌破1.1570后，下一目标为1.1500区域，甚至可能下探1.1325低点，但美联储会议未必是催化剂。

对应原文证据

1. And yet, outside of USDJPY, the US dollar finished the day not far from where it started, suggesting little overall impact from the CPI number, even as odds of an FOMC hike by the end of the day shifted toward “near certainty” from a “more-likely-than-not” level.
2. That 1.1500 area has supported EURUSD, save for the significant slippage in June and July, since May of last year.
3. Will this FOMC meeting serve as a similar catalyst?