外汇交易员：真正的日元，请站出来

关键论点

• 10月初以来油价走高未能推升全球债券收益率，打破了此前的油债联动，从而限制了美元。
• 收益率下行叠加风险情绪疲弱是对日元最有利的组合，油价回落将构成第三个支撑因素。
• 美元兑日元空头需跌破155.25-155.00；158.50处的200日均线与云顶均已守住。
• 只有在美债收益率受抑的前提下，美元趋势反转才是基准情景，且仍需更多证据。

对应原文证据

1. Instead, we got quite the opposite, which means a somewhat different reaction pattern across currencies and perhaps a chance for the JPY to rally more persistently.
2. Clearly the inflationary concerns from higher oil prices are being weighed against the risk that the supply-side shock of the higher energy input costs into the economy might trigger a recession.
3. The focus yesterday for treasuries was clearly more on safe haven seeking as the US equity market suffered an ugly sell-off.