哈萨克斯坦降息 50bp，印证对全球困境的韧性

关键论点

• 反通胀集中在食品端，非食品和服务价格更粘性，CPI仍显著高于5%目标。
• 坚戈自伊朗战争爆发以来升值11%、同比升值20%，按NBK自身对汇率的关联表述，汇率现承担大部分反通胀压力。
• 受财政和准财政措施支撑的内需依然强劲，使潜在价格压力保持显著。
• NBK指引提及全球金融条件收紧、全球食品和能源价格上涨，并称2026年底前调整利率的可能性较低。

对应原文证据

1. But resilience is not immunity; with disinflation still relying heavily on a strong tenge, real rates will need to stay high.
2. We saw room for another cut thanks to lower inflation, improving inflation expectations and continued tenge strength, but expected the worsening global rates backdrop to encourage a smaller step.
3. Annual CPI slowed to a below-expected 9.3% year-on-year, while inflation expectations of households and economists continued to improve.