市场速览 - 2023以来美联储首次加息提振美元 - 2026年9月17日

关键论点

• 美联储鹰派加息，多数官员预计年内至少再加息一次，市场预计到2027年中期至少还有三次加息。
• 美元因短端美债收益率计入比美联储点阵图更激进的紧缩预期而大涨；欧元兑美元低见1.1456，美元兑日元高见156.30。
• 沙特预计数日内恢复约一半东西管道运力并提供替代货船，油价大幅下跌，但地缘政治风险溢价仍存。
• 美元创七周新高而黄金仍收复部分失地，表明需求不再仅由利率和美元驱动，财政、地缘政治和央行多元化需求提供支撑。

对应原文证据

1. • The Fed raised the funds rate 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, its first hike since 2023, citing elevated inflation and the need to move back toward 2%. · September 2026
2. Most officials see at least one more hike this year, but market projections suggest at least three more Fed rate hikes by mid-2027. · 2027
3. Growth forecasts for 2026–27 were nudged up, inflation projections for 2028 are slightly higher, and the unemployment outlook was lowered to 4.1% through 2028. · 2026