比特币自8月中旬低点反弹约37%，以太坊约46%，数字资产总市值自1月以来首次重回3万亿美元上方。此轮上涨的触发因素是8月19日美国财政部宣布将长债回购规模至少翻倍，随后约46亿美元的美国现货比特币ETF净流入以及8.5万美元上方的空头清算进一步强化了涨势。但两者年内仍为负收益，且远低于2025年高点。
For investors who hold digital assets, or who follow them as a read on risk appetite, the past five weeks have been the most constructive stretch of 2026.· 2026
After a long grind lower and persistent fund outflows through the first half of the year, bitcoin and ethereum have both rallied hard since mid-August.
Bitcoin and ethereum: the mid-August rally in numbers.
上下文：结论为 Tlines 自动提取，并非机构原话；带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。
在原始来源核验 ↗摘要：自8月中旬以来，比特币已回升约37%，以太坊回升约46%，推动数字资产总市值自1月以来首次重回3万亿美元上方。以下是推动此次上涨的因素、当前关键价位所在，以及可能打断这一走势的障碍。
为期五周的复苏已修复这两大数字资产今年的大部分跌幅。其能否延续，如今更多取决于华盛顿和宏观背景，而非加密货币本身。
对于持有数字资产、或将其作为风险偏好参考的投资者而言，过去五周是2026以来最具建设性的一段时期。在经历了长时间的低迷下行以及上半年持续的资金流出后，比特币和以太坊自8月中旬以来均大幅上涨。数字资产总市值自1月以来首次重回3万亿美元，期间市值增加超过740亿美元（来源：彭博，22年9月2026日）。
这轮行情值得仔细审视的原因不在于其规模，而在于其构成。该资产类别的上涨往往由散户主导、杠杆驱动，且往往来得快去得也快。而此次上涨伴随着美国受监管现货交易所交易基金的持续买入，在我们看来，这与单纯的空头挤压是不同的信号。两种因素同时存在，而将二者区分开来，对于任何试图判断这轮涨势能持续多久的人来说都至关重要。
比特币自8月中旬低点已回升约37%，以太坊回升约46%，两者均在9月21日创下本轮周期最高点位，随后回落并在略低于这些水平的位置盘整（来源：彭博，23年9月2026日）。
比特币和以太坊：8月中旬反弹数据一览。来源：彭博，23年9月2026日。过往表现并不预示未来结果。
该表格中有一行值得注意，因为它往往会让人感到意外。尽管涨幅如此之大，这两种资产年初至今仍为负收益。37%的涨幅尚不足以让比特币回到1月起点，这有效衡量了此前回撤的深度。
将视角拉宽，这一点更加明显。比特币于2025年10月创下超过125,000美元的历史高点，随后一年大部分时间持续走低，最深处出现在2026年6月，并在8月中旬出现第二个更高的低点（来源：彭博，23年9月2026日）。即便从8月低点反弹了37%，其价格仍比峰值低约三分之一，而以太坊则比其自身2025高点低超过40%。这是从深度低点反弹，而非上一轮牛市的延续，对于任何正在判断自己是否错过了这轮行情的人来说，这是截然不同的命题。
比特币和以太坊日线价格，2024年1月至2026年9月。8月2026的反弹起步于远低于2025峰值的位置。来源：彭博。过往表现并不预示未来结果。
该图表也标出了转折的时间。当前这轮上涨在美国财政部回购公告发布后数日内启动，在我们看来，这是最清晰的视觉证据，表明这轮行情起初是一笔宏观交易，而非加密货币特有的行情。
投资者似乎正在关注的关键价位：
整数关口本身并无预测能力。它们之所以重要，是因为大量参与者围绕这些水平下单和设置止损，这可能使这些价位附近的价格行为比其他位置更为波动。
来源：彭博，23年9月2026日。过往表现并不预示未来结果。
iShares Bitcoin Trust（IBIT）是美国最大的现货比特币ETF，由于其资金流每日披露，能相当清晰地反映机构参与情况。该基金持有约68.3十亿美元资产，自15月68.3日以来已吸引约3.76十亿美元的净流入，其中单日最大流入约503百万美元，发生在20月68.3日，即财政部回购公告后的那个交易日（来源：彭博及彭博BQL基金资金流数据，2026月23日）。该份额交易价格接近48.83美元。ETF交易适用成本和费用；详情请参阅盛宝定价。
流出日与流入日同样具有参考价值。两个最大的流出日——15月162日约162百万美元和16月144日约144百万美元——恰逢参议院就《CLARITY法案》的程序性投票失败。资产配置者似乎将监管时间表视为一个实时变量，而非背景噪音。
来源：彭博，2026月23日。过往表现并不预示未来结果。
自8月中旬以来的走势是真实的，因为它有可衡量、已披露的资金流作为支撑，而非仅仅依靠情绪。这一走势也是不完整的，因为两大主流币种仍低于年初水平，而行业一直期待的法律框架尚未出台。这两个事实并存，在我们看来，投资者最好将两者都放在心上，而不是只择其一。过往表现并不预示未来结果。
对于通过 IBIT 等交易所交易基金来观察这一走势的人来说，实际问题是：如何对一种一周内可能朝任一方向波动 20% 的资产进行仓位规模设定和敞口管理。这将是后续文章的主题，届时将探讨 IBIT 的上市期权市场，以及对加密货币复苏持看涨或谨慎观点的投资者如何以限定风险来表达这一观点。期权具有快速亏损的高风险，并不适合所有投资者。有关成本和适用费用，请参阅盛宝的定价。
Summary: Bitcoin has recovered roughly 37% and ethereum roughly 46% since mid-August, lifting the total digital asset market back above USD 3 trillion for the first time since January. Here is what drove the move, where the key levels now sit, and which hurdles could interrupt it.
A five-week recovery has repaired most of this year’s damage in the two largest digital assets. Whether it extends now depends less on crypto and more on Washington and the macro backdrop.
For investors who hold digital assets, or who follow them as a read on risk appetite, the past five weeks have been the most constructive stretch of 2026. After a long grind lower and persistent fund outflows through the first half of the year, bitcoin and ethereum have both rallied hard since mid-August. The total digital asset market capitalisation reclaimed USD 3 trillion for the first time since January, adding more than USD 740 billion in value over the period (Source: Bloomberg, 22 September 2026).
What makes this move worth a closer look is not its size but its composition. Rallies in this asset class are often retail-led and leverage-driven, and they tend to fade as quickly as they arrive. This one has been accompanied by sustained buying through regulated US spot exchange-traded funds, which in our view is a different signal to a short squeeze alone. Both elements are present, and separating them matters for anyone trying to judge how durable the move is.
Bitcoin has recovered roughly 37% from its mid-August low and ethereum roughly 46%, with both setting their highest prints of the cycle on 21 September before easing back and consolidating just below those levels (Source: Bloomberg, 23 September 2026).
Bitcoin and ethereum: the mid-August rally in numbers. Source: Bloomberg, 23 September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
One line in that table deserves a note, because it tends to surprise people. Despite gains of that size, both assets remain negative for the year to date. A 37% advance has not been enough to get bitcoin back to where it started January, which is a useful measure of how deep the earlier drawdown was.
Widening the lens makes the point more forcefully. Bitcoin set its all-time high above USD 125,000 in October 2025 and spent most of the following year grinding lower, with its deepest levels in June 2026 and a second, higher low in mid-August (Source: Bloomberg, 23 September 2026). Even after a 37% recovery from that August low it trades roughly a third below the peak, and ethereum sits more than 40% below its own 2025 high. This is a rally off a deep low rather than a continuation of the last bull market, which is a different proposition for anyone deciding whether they have missed the move.
Bitcoin and ethereum daily prices, January 2024 to September 2026. The August 2026 recovery begins from a level well below the 2025 peak. Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The chart also dates the turn. The current leg higher starts within days of the Treasury buyback announcement, which in our view is the clearest visual evidence that this move began as a macro trade rather than a crypto-specific one.
The levels investors appear to be watching:
Round numbers carry no predictive power on their own. They matter because a large number of participants place orders and stops around them, which can make price behaviour near those levels more volatile than elsewhere.
Source: Bloomberg, 23 September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest US spot bitcoin ETF, gives a reasonably clean read on institutional participation because its flows are disclosed daily. The fund held approximately USD 68.3 billion in assets and had attracted around USD 3.76 billion of net inflows since 15 August, with the single largest day, roughly USD 503 million, landing on 20 August, the session after the Treasury buyback announcement (Source: Bloomberg and Bloomberg BQL fund flow data, 23 September 2026). The shares traded near USD 48.83. Costs and charges apply to ETF trades; see Saxo pricing for full details.
The outflow days are as informative as the inflows. The two largest, approximately USD 162 million on 15 September and USD 144 million on 16 September, coincided with the failed Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act. Allocators appear to be treating the regulatory timetable as a live input rather than background noise.
Source: Bloomberg, 23 September 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The move since mid-August has been genuine in the sense that it is backed by measurable, disclosed fund flows rather than sentiment alone. It is also incomplete, in that both majors remain below where they started the year and the legislative framework the industry has been waiting for has not arrived. Those two facts sit alongside each other, and in our view an investor is better served holding both in mind than picking one. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
For anyone looking at this through an exchange-traded fund such as IBIT, the practical question is how to size and manage exposure to an asset that can move 20% in a week in either direction. That is the subject of a follow-up piece, which will look at IBIT’s listed options market and how investors with a view on the crypto recovery, bullish or cautious, may express it with defined risk. Options carry a high risk of rapid loss and are not suitable for every investor. See Saxo pricing for costs and applicable charges.
正在载入文档……
本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 Saxo Bank 于 2026/09/23 发布的研报中提取并结构化，用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正