商品周报：拥挤交易解除，能源风险加剧

关键论点

• 拥挤交易平仓之际，仓位而非基本面暂时主导价格发现。
• 能源是通胀中的例外：尽管增长担忧升温，中东供应风险仍支撑原油与成品油。
• 黄金回调源于动量抛售与多头平仓，并非其结构性投资逻辑破裂。
• 铜的走向取决于美国精炼铜关税决定与库存流动；铁矿石则反映中国建筑需求的结构性放缓。

对应原文证据

1. • Metals face contrasting challenges: Gold and silver suffer technical selling despite lower bond yields, while copper remains vulnerable to US tariff uncertainty and the potential reversal of extraordinary inventory stockpiling.
2. Together, these developments have heightened concerns about the outlook for growth and inflation, triggering sharp reversals across financial markets and exposing increasingly stretched speculative positions.
3. This has produced some seemingly contradictory developments: bond yields have fallen despite renewed inflation concerns, gold has weakened despite safe-haven demand, and oil has rallied even as worries about economic growth intensify.