美加贸易战新篇章：关于第 338 条关税我们已知与未知的部分

关键论点

• 对约占加拿大对美出口5%的商品征收50%的新关税，使受关税影响的商品约占加拿大GDP的0.4%，不足以破坏增长。
• 超过80%的加拿大出口在CUSMA下仍享有关税豁免，限制了整体宏观影响。
• 对塑料、电机、家具和木制品等行业影响显著，区域上集中于魁北克、BC省和安大略省。
• 加拿大的有效关税率可能从3%上升至约6%，但实际贸易转移可能降低观察到的增幅。
• 商业信心受不确定性拖累，但企业正在适应；加拿大央行不太可能降息，但加息可能性降低。
• CUSMA仍提供广泛保护，但额外关税的威胁持续存在。
• 鉴于加拿大在目标商品上是净进口国，北美内部贸易转向可能部分抵消关税成本。

对应原文证据

1. More than 80% of exports would remain duty free under CUSMA exemptions. · medium-term
2. Plastic products, electrical machinery, furniture and wood product sectors are among the most significantly impacted by the new measures – and regionally that means a higher concentration of economic impact in Quebec, BC, and Ontario. · short-term
3. Canada’s average effective tariff rate mechanically would rise to around 6% from around 3%—no longer the lowest among major U.S. trade partners, but still below the average U.S. tariff rate on imports from all countries (close to 7%). In practice, the observed tariff rate will not increase that much, because many of these highly tariffed products will simply not be traded. · medium-term