劳动力市场紧张状况料将延续，尽管非农就业增长放缓

关键论点

• 由于创纪录的退休人数，非农就业数据的意义下降；医疗保健和AI基础设施推动就业增长。
• 失业金申请人数低、持续申请人数稳定以及兼职就业比例稳定表明劳动力市场并未恶化。
• 失业率下降是劳动力参与率的故事，紧张状况源于供给约束。
• 盈亏平衡就业率极低，约为每月2万，因此温和的就业增长也能维持失业率稳定。

对应原文证据

1. The pace of payroll growth has slowed significantly in the wake of recent months’ downward revisions, but we do not interpret this as evidence of labor market slack. Payrolls are becoming a less meaningful gauge of labor market health as record retirements distort the picture. · Current
2. Moreover, currently less than 25% of unemployed job seekers were permanently laid off (nearly half of those currently unemployed are new labor market entrants or re-entrants). And the share of employees working part-time for economic reasons has remained anchored despite softer payroll gains. · Current
3. As of the late, the move lower in the unemployment rate has been a labor force participation story. The tightness that we have been witnessing continues to be a supply story as retirements remain elevated and immigration stays exceptionally low. · Current