高风险，窄空间：加拿大联邦预算押注投资驱动型增长

关键论点

• 2025年预算引入了大规模新支出和更大的赤字，本财年预计赤字为780亿加元（占GDP的-2.5%）。
• 政府目标是在2028-29年前平衡运营预算，并保持赤字占GDP比率下降，但缓冲空间有限。
• 预算依赖于5000亿加元的私人投资来带动增长，但实施和外部环境的稳定性是关键风险。
• 如果私人投资目标未实现，财政锚定可能会改变，但未提供明确的衡量标准。

对应原文证据

1. The federal government’s net debt burden—a declining ratio was the prior governments’ most recent fiscal anchor—is set to increase to a peak of 43.3% in 2027-28 and 2028-29 before inching barely downward in 2029-30. · medium_term
2. This leads to the operating budget balance improving to -0.3% of GDP next year and becoming positive from 2028-29, meeting the other stated fiscal anchor of balancing the operating balance within three years. · 2028-29
3. But, the government has provided very long term projections showing a declining ratio (under a reasonable set of economic assumptions) expected to turn downward by the mid-2030s. · mid-2030s