加拿大就业市场在8月守住了此前的改善

关键论点

• 整体就业增长波动较大；退休增加和人口增长放缓等结构性变化是加拿大今年就业增长低迷的更大驱动因素。
• 失业率是衡量周期性状况的更好指标；8月失业率稳定在6.4%，表明年初至今有所改善。
• 8月工作时间增长0.6%，第三季度迄今年化增长5%，表明GDP动能得以延续。
• 美国关税将产生显著但有针对性的影响；只有0.4%的就业直接涉及新关税清单上的商品生产。
• 工资增长正常化至同比2%，为五年来最慢，原因是劳动力供应过剩。

对应原文证据

1. This is in line with our own analysis, that continues to expect U.S. tariffs will have pronounced, but targeted effect on Canada’s labour market –we estimated 0.4% of jobs are directly involved in producing the goods that are on the new Section 338 tariff lists. · medium_term
2. Overall, month wage numbers can be volatile but we continue to expect normalization on balance, due mostly to current excess labour supply reducing the need among businesses to compete for workers. · medium_term
3. The labour force participation rate ticked lower to 65%, around levels that are the lowest since the 1990s as retirement accelerates to reduced available labour supply relative to the total population. · current