增长延续，风险扩大

关键论点

• 预计未来6至12个月全球增长保持韧性且通胀温和，支撑因素包括AI资本开支繁荣、消费者和中国消化更高成本以及央行渐进式政策。
• 基线依赖三大缓冲：AI资本开支周期持续但不引发过热、继续消化更高成本、以及央行渐进主义和AI相关风险偏好维持金融条件稳定。
• 主要下行风险包括AI投资放缓或收缩、能源供应冲击恶化、金融条件骤然收紧，任一风险都可能打破良性情景。
• 资产估值可能未充分反映这些相互交织的风险，因此组合应多元化并能抵御多种情景。

对应原文证据

1. Cyclical Outlook • October 2026 Page 02 PIMCOCyclical Outlook October 2026 Written by Tiffany Wilding Managing Director Economist Andrew Balls Chief Investment Officer Global Fixed Income Page 03PIMCO Cyclical Outlook October 2026 Macroeconomic takeaways Investment takeaways 1. · October 2026
2. In our baseline, we expect global growth to remain resilient over our six- to 12-month cyclical horizon while inflation moderates.
3. A booming AI investment cycle, the ability of consumers and China to absorb higher costs, and an incremental approach by central banks may help support growth while containing inflation.