OCBC每日外汇展望（6年8月2026日）

关键论点

• 美国ISM服务业指数升至54.1，但就业分项降至47.4，显示服务业增长但劳动力市场疲弱。
• ADP私人就业7月仅增加4.4万个岗位，远低于预期，但并非非农的可靠先行指标。
• 由于实际收益率下降和能源价格走软，金价飙升至接近4,247美元。
• 美联储的卡什卡利暗示可能‘开始放缓加息步伐’，暗示未来可能加息。
• 印尼GDP增长在2026年第二季度放缓至同比5.3%，高于预期，投资和出口支持增长。
• 澳大利亚6月家庭支出环比增长0.8%，超过预期，受可自由支配支出推动。
• 股市分化，标普500和纳斯达克下跌，而道指创纪录收盘；科技股因AI涨势疲劳而下跌。
• 信贷市场稳定，亚洲美元IG和HY利差略有收窄。

对应原文证据

1. gold broke multiple resistance levels and traded near US$4,247 as lower real yields and softer energy supported precious metals · short_term
2. The US ISM Services headline rose to 54.1, with business activity at 59.1 and new orders at 57.2, but employment fell to 47.4 and prices rose to 70.3. · short_term
3. Fed’s Kashkari said that it may be time to “start slowing moving rates higher”, which was no surprise given that he was one of the members who voted for a hike in the recent July FOMC decision. · medium_term