每日国债展望 · 亮点

关键论点

• 地缘政治风险（美伊紧张局势）可能使油价维持高位，但潜在的外交突破可能限制涨幅。
• 日本央行可能在9月加息并继续每季度加息，支撑日元。
• 中国向大型银行注资旨在加强金融体系和促进贷款，支持信贷增长。
• 强劲的美国非农数据增加了美联储9月加息的可能性，可能对股市构成压力。
• 因假期流动性稀薄和地缘政治不确定性，全球股市可能表现谨慎。

对应原文证据

1. Brent crude rose to a six- week high of US$98/bbl following tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend, before paring gains on reports that Iran may be nearing a temporary accord with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
2. On the data front, Germany's industrial production unexpectedly contracted by 1.1% MoM in July (vs. consensus: 0.2% MoM), marking the largest decline in nearly a year, likely due to temporary plant shutdowns.
3. Meanwhile, June's reading was also revised lower by 0.2 percentage points.