每日国债展望 · 要点

关键论点

• 油价走弱主导市场：伊朗释放重开霍尔木兹海峡信号，沙特恢复东西管道输油，供应担忧缓解。
• 若美国禁止柴油出口，布伦特预计将跑赢WTI，但对原油绝对价格影响方向不明。
• 波士顿联储柯林斯支持上周加息，警告通胀可能持续高于2%。
• 台湾8月出口订单同比激增71.4%至创纪录的1027亿美元，受AI需求推动。

对应原文证据

1. WTI crude dropped 5.5% to USD90.52/bbl, while Brent fell 1.8% to USD98.53/bbl, after Iran signalled that it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the US eases military pressure.
2. Should the Trump administration proceed with a ban on US diesel exports, we would expect Brent to outperform WTI, although the impact on outright crude prices is more ambiguous.
3. With the US currently serving as an important marginal supplier to an exceptionally tight global distillate market, removing US barrels from the international market would further tighten ex-US product balances and could initially lend support to Brent.