美国就业数据走软与巴西关键选举

关键论点

• 9月新增非农仅2.9万，远低于9万的市场预期，但4.2%的失业率和上升的参与率表明充分就业状态仍存。
• 劳动力市场稳定，未增加通胀压力；工资月环比仅涨13个基点，低于过去一年本就低迷的涨幅。
• 就业走软和工资放缓降低了10月美联储加息的紧迫性，若通胀数据配合，12月亦可能如此，但通胀仍是更重要的关切。
• Natixis谨慎建议逐步做多2年期收益率，并买入3m5y 1x2接收期权、在5s10s30s互换中做多10年期，因预期反弹相对温和。

对应原文证据

1. As we expect any rally tobe relatively modest, we also recommend 3m5y 1x2 receivers (ATM-25/ATM-50) and owning 10s on 5s10s30s inswaps.
2. Wage growth was even lower than the typically tepid gains inthe last year, rising only 13bps m/m.
3. We continue to think the labor market isabit shakier than the headline numbers suggest, but this data isunlikely to shift the broader decision-making calculus for the Fed as inflation remains the higher concern, but with wages lower and the jobs picture abit less rosy, itcertainly decreases the urgency to hike inOctober (and perhaps December, ifinflation data cooperates).