[演示文稿] 亚洲与中东：我们身处何地，未来何去何从？

关键论点

• 增长分化：中国走弱，而北亚、印度和部分东盟加速。
• 出口是中国关键增长引擎，受到更具竞争力的实际汇率支撑。
• 预计日本央行到7月加息至1.75%，若通胀不降则存在更快收紧风险。
• 印度到2030年需1.15亿个岗位才能使女性劳动参与率升至50%；海湾国家2026年增长放缓。

对应原文证据

1. Alicia Garcia Herrero –Chief Economist, Asia Pacific & Middle East –alicia.garciaherrero@natixis.com Asia has been hit by the war in Iran but less than expected thanks to AI boom1 Asia’s export cycle has turned decidedly upward, but only for those inside the AI supply chain.
2. Defined as firms with EBITDA-to-interest expense lower than 1.
3. 12 Renewables sees the biggest jump in zombie firms, and the well performing sector of communication services also see greater divergence between large and small players N.B.