美联储加息：一小步？

关键论点

• FOMC一致决定加息25个基点至4.00%上限，为2023年以来首次，理由是通胀过高且持续时间过长。
• 预计Banxico将长期维持6.50%利率且不提供前瞻指引，即便美联储再加息25个基点，除非汇率走势失控。
• 巴西央行未提供降息节奏线索；终端Selic利率在浅度财政调整下为10%-12%，在强力财政调整下为7%-9%。
• 墨西哥增长正在改善，预计2026年GDP约1.4%，高于2025年的1.0%，但即便乐观的2.0%也不足以弥合负产出缺口。

对应原文证据

1. “The plain fact isthat inflation istoo high and has been for too long.” -Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ► In its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased its policy rate by 25bps to an upper bound of 4.00% in aunanimous decision ,raising rates for the first time since 2023. · 2023
2. ACROSS THE AMERICAS 2 US Week In Review In its September meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased its policy rate by 25bps to an upper bound of 4% inaunanimous decision, raising rates for the first time since 2023. · 2023
3. We thought this outcome was the path ofleast resistance and though this move will do very little toactually address inflation, itwill buy the FOMC time tosee ifthe higher-than-expected print inAugust was just abump inthe road or something more worrisome.