欧元区：阳光下的滞胀

关键论点

• 热浪对欧元区整体通胀构成持续但最终暂时的成本推动冲击，而非永久性通胀驱动因素。
• 能源价格即时上升0.81个百分点，并在两个季度内保持显著，可能源于空调推升的电力需求。
• 食品价格传导剧烈，但在第一季度后消退，因此中期不产生永久性食品通胀。
• GDP总量损失不具统计显著性，因受影响较小地区或内部转移抵消了受热浪影响地区。

对应原文证据

1. These additional pressures on headline inflation (and its key components) will materialise by early next year, aperiod during which we already foresee higher energy prices due to the Middle tensions and at the time of the wage negotiations in most euro area countries. · next year
2. These are likely to affect the short- term inflation expectations.
3. +33 158 55 60 49 alain.durre@natixis.com Mellina DAHMANE mellina.dahmane-ext@natixis.com Discover more on our Website EMEA MACRO SNAPSHOT 2 Scorched supply: Why heatwaves are fuelling inflation, not necessarily growth Impact on heatwaves on the economy: Stylized facts In theory, heatwaves are expected to affect negatively (positively) the economic activity (inflation) through various channels.