美国经济简报：人口老龄化抑制劳动力供给并降低盈亏平衡就业增长（650KB）

关键论点

• 相比提前退休，老龄化更能解释参与率的持续低迷；65岁及以上人群参与率下降与人口占比上升共同拖累55岁及以上整体参与率。
• 移民已无法抵消人口逆风；外国出生劳动力贡献转为负值，TPS到期可能带来额外拖累。
• 劳动力需求走软消除了职位空缺过剩，空缺与失业人数之比接近1，尽管供给疲弱，市场仍大体平衡。
• 盈亏平衡就业增长显著下降；历史上看似疲弱的就业增幅如今或足以维持失业率稳定，使美联储得以聚焦通胀。

对应原文证据

1. Participation among workers aged 55-64 has trended up on a 12-month moving- average basis, and has risen above pre-pandemic levels, while participation among workers aged 65 and over has continued to trend lower (Chart 2).
2. Moreover, growth in the 65+ population has continued to outpace growth in the 55-64 population, increasing the weight of a lower-participating 65+ cohort in the aggregate 55+ participation rate (Chart 3).
3. While recent population-control revisions 2 may have affected the latest estimates, the upward trend in the 65+ population share predates both the pandemic and the revisions, suggesting that demographic aging remains a persistent structural headwind to participation.