日元再度表现疲软的迹象 · 外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 美元兑日元报158.51，正好触及200日移动均线；若突破将释放进一步上行空间，并可能回撤至160，届时干预猜测可能重现。
• 日元目前跑输其他G10货币，10月表现仅次于欧元为第二差，逆转了此前与美元同步的走势。
• 预计美联储9月会议纪要大体支持市场对加息的定价，维持美元支撑，但三菱日联怀疑美联储是否会兑现当前定价。
• 日本计划中的补充预算可能使日本国债曲线陡化，并令外界质疑政府的抗通胀与财政整顿公信力。

对应原文证据

1. 1 7th October 2026 Signs of renewed JPY underperformance 7 th October 2026 JPY: Downside risks versus US dollar The USD/JPY high today of 158.51 is just at the 200-day moving average level and if breached would certainly signal scope for further gains over the short-term. · October 2026
2. The FOMC minutes from the September meeting will be released this evening and market participants will be looking for indication of how much further the fed funds rate could go.
3. We do still believe the Fed will not deliver what is currently priced but we need to see evidence of measures of inflation slowing and it’s too soon for that .