修改日本央行政策利率情景；目前预计下次加息在9月货币政策会议【固定收益评论 - 货币政策导航】

关键论点

• 植田行长会后措辞转为在下次及后续会议“充分讨论”，因上行物价风险，暗示9月会议可能采取行动。
• 罕见的日美协同买入日元干预及美国财长贝森特言论，暗示美方预期日本央行加息。
• 高市内阁似乎更担忧日元加速疲软和进口价格上涨，财务省可能担心长期收益率上升。
• 三菱日联将终端利率预测从1.50%上调至1.75%，反映政策反应函数转向锚定2%通胀的阶段。

对应原文证据

1. We infer that the BoJ now sees itself as having moved from a phase of pushing underlying CPI inflation up to 2% to a phase of anchoring it there.
2. (Governor Ueda’s comments at the press conference translated by MUMSS.) The Japanese government intervened to buy yen and sell dollars in the New York FX market on July 30, according to reports in the Nikkei and elsewhere, and on July 31 the Japanese and US authorities each announced that they had conducted a coordinated yen-buying intervention.
3. The Ministry of Finance (MoF), responsible for Japan’s government finances, is also likely worried that heightened inflation concerns caused by accelerating yen weakness will push long-term yields higher as it begins drawing up the FY27 budget. · long-term