mufg 美国宏观策略通胀更新 2026年8月 CPI 预览

关键论点

• 预计2026年8月整体CPI环比0.32%（同比3.3%），核心CPI环比0.23%（同比2.4%），与彭博一致预期相符。
• 按MUFG预测，核心CPI的3个月年化增长率将降至1.7%，低于疫情前均值和美联储2%的目标，表明通胀动能偏低至温和。
• 7月核心商品通胀转正，但二手车通缩将限制商品贡献；机票价格因高油价而保持高位，大学学费增长则有所放缓。
• 若核心CPI为0.2%，预计美债收益率将下行4-6个基点，因CPI前的抛售归因于非美基本面（欧央行加息和油价）。
• 若核心CPI为0.3%，9月FOMC加息预期将升至90%左右，美联储难以按兵不动；若为0.1%，加息概率将降至五五开，MUFG预计美联储将维持利率不变，并引发7-11个基点的收益率下行。
• FOMC投票分布与情景对应：0.1% -> 2/10票支持加息，0.2% -> 5/7票，0.3% -> 12/0票一致加息，Warsh将推动以全票通过25个基点的加息。

对应原文证据

1. ▪ What to watch out for: Core goods inflation returned to positive territory in July, with some of that momentum likely to carry forward into August, though deflation of used auto prices will limit the monthly contribution from goods.
2. For services, growth in college tuition should moderate (following strong growth last month which contributed ~0.01% points to overall CPI), but airline fares inflation is expected to remain elevated amid high oil prices.
3. Market Thoughts ▪ Base-case: Given the rates sell-off ahead of CPI, it will all depend on the composition of inflation and rounding (within the 0.15-0.24 range).