MUFG宏观：通胀接近三年高位，但第二轮效应的迹象仍有限（839KB）

关键论点

• 8月整体HICP加速至3.2%由能源通胀14%推动；核心通胀降至2.4%，服务价格回落至3.0%。
• 尚无明确的二轮效应：通胀高于4%的广度仍然有限，服务通胀处于下行路径，劳动力市场紧张程度远低于2022年峰值。
• 进入冬季的天然气库存处于15年低位，是最可能且影响最大的上行风险，可能产生更广泛的生产成本传导和真正的二轮效应。
• 成品油价格已与布伦特原油脱钩，使运输项HICP动能居高不下；化肥供应中断可能以较长时滞推高食品通胀。

对应原文证据

1. Food inflation is currently low, but disruption in fertiliser markets and a strong El Niño could alter the outlook by year-end.
2. If higher energy prices keep headline inflation significantly above target for an extended period, the ECB may choose to tighten further even before clear evidence of second-round effects emerges.
3. We have regarded a 2.5% deposit facility rate as the likely endpoint of the tightening cycle, but the risk of additional rate hikes has risen materially in recent months.