Tlines 全球机构情报
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中东日报

多经济体
可引用研究简报

核心结论 · Tlines 提取

MUFG中东日报指出,尽管霍尔木兹谈判停滞,全球石油市场依然紧张,布伦特原油接近88美元/桶,WTI接近82美元/桶。美国通胀放缓降低了加息风险,金价维持在4400美元/盎司附近。海湾地区石油产量回升但出口瓶颈持续,IEA预计第三季度供需缺口为180万桶/日。EGA计划在2027年第一季度前恢复Al Taweelah产量,修复费用达4亿美元。

机构
三菱日联金融集团
发布时间
2026/08/13
研究主题
Price level · Oil · Geopolitical risk
时间范围
current · near-term · Q3 2026 · Q1 2027 · Q4 2026 onward

关键论点

  • 尽管霍尔木兹谈判停滞,全球石油市场供应紧张,布伦特原油接近88美元/桶,WTI接近82美元/桶。
  • 美国通胀放缓及央行购金支撑金价,黄金维持在4400美元/盎司附近。
  • 海湾地区石油产量回升受出口瓶颈拖累,全球石油市场保持紧张。
  • IEA预计第三季度全球石油供需缺口为180万桶/日,是此前预测的两倍多。
  • EGA计划在2027年第一季度前恢复生产,修复费用达4亿美元。

关键数字

布伦特原油价格
88美元/桶
WTI原油价格
82美元/桶
黄金价格
4400美元/盎司
第三季度供需缺口
180万桶/日
美国原油库存增加
1740万桶
EGA修复成本
4亿美元
EGA年产能
150万吨

主要风险

  • 霍尔木兹谈判停滞可能维持油价高位并带来进一步供应中断风险。
  • 中东局势再度升级和能源价格反弹对通胀构成上行风险。
  • 油价上涨开始抑制需求,可能使市场走软。
  • 出口瓶颈和海上中断限制海湾产油国增加出口的能力。
  • 美国通胀和就业数据以及美联储官员讲话可能改变利率预期,影响黄金和油价。

对应原文证据

  1. Brent slipped toward USD88/b, while WTI traded near USD82/b. · current
  2. renewed Middle East escalation and a rebound in energy prices remain upside risks for inflation. · near-term
  3. Gulf oil production continued to recover in July, although renewed disruption to export routes prevented a corresponding increase in global supplies. · Q3 2026

条件 / 失效条件

  • 中东局势再度升级且能源价格反弹
  • 重启速度和霍尔木兹航运正常化

上下文:结论为 Tlines 自动提取,并非机构原话;带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。

在原始来源核验 ↗
研报原件

正在载入文档……

完整中文译文

第 1 页

1 年 13 月 2026 日

中东日报

13 月 2026 日

大宗商品 / 能源

油价在六日连涨后企稳,霍尔木兹谈判陷入僵局。油价小幅走低,投资者等待霍尔木兹海峡重新开放取得进展。布伦特原油回落至每桶 88 美元附近,WTI 原油则交投于每桶 82 美元附近。美国与伊朗的谈判在很大程度上仍处于僵局,双方立场均趋强硬,美国则通过对伊朗港口的封锁持续施压。与此同时,国际能源署(IEA)预计,全球石油市场将在第 3, 季度面临每日 1.8 百万桶的显著供应缺口,是此前预测的两倍多,原因是中东冲突的持续以及俄乌战争相关的供应中断导致供应趋紧。然而,近期的上行压力部分被美国原油库存增加 17.4 百万桶所抵消,这是自 2023, 年 1 月以来的最大增幅,原因是出口走弱和进口增加。展望未来,恢复霍尔木兹海峡通行的进展仍是油价的关键催化剂,而全球供需平衡趋紧应会为油价提供支撑,尽管有迹象显示油价上涨开始抑制需求。

Gold holds near USD4,400 as softer US inflation eases rate-hike risk. Gold held near USD4,400/oz, supported by softer-than-expected US inflation that reduced pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. US consumer prices increased just 0.1% m/m in July, suggesting that inflationary pressure from the earlier energy-price shock is moderating, while recent weakness in the labour market has further reduced the case for immediate tightening. Gold has also been supported by renewed investor demand and continued central-bank purchases, particularly from China, pushing the gold above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April. Going forward, upcoming US labour and inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks will be key for the rate outlook, while renewed Middle East escalation and a rebound in energy prices remain upside risks for inflation.

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO RECOVER ( ‘000 B/D)

Source: Bloomberg, OEPC, MUFG Research 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

Jan-23Mar-23May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25Nov-25Jan-26Mar-26May-26 Jul-26

OPEC total Oil Production ('000 b/d) Brent prices (USD/b)

Middle East Daily

SOOJIN KIM Analyst DIFC Branch –Dubai T:+971 (4)387 5031 E:soojin.kim@ae.mufg.jp

MUFG Bank, Ltd. and MUFG Securities plc A member of MUFG, a global financial group

第 2 页

2 年 13 月 2026 日 中东 – 信用交易

收盘评论 – 12 月 2026 日。美元利率市场再次推动现货价格波动,但现货价格的惯性导致该地区信用利差普遍走阔。今晚有 10 年期拍卖,隔夜很可能出现同样的情况。本周来自亚洲的GCC浮动利率债券出现了一些双边报价,我们也发现了一些伊斯兰债券的卖家,以满足那些急于将利差压至零的买家。客户活动仍然非常低迷。即使是ETF账户的交易也不多,尽管ETF基差处于低位。PT账户整月都在试图摆脱同样的僵持头寸。对于沙特和科威特,主权债券利差从 3 年期点至长久期端走阔 -4 个基点,只有沙特 5 显示了实际成交量,今日交易量达 61 百万美元,收益率处于低位 +15 区间。ARAMCO和PIFKSA曲线与沙特相似,但随着九月份发行季的临近,PIFKSA曲线整体感觉愈发沉重。(来源:Matthew Dunker,信用交易员)

中东 – 宏观 / 市场

海湾产量回升,但出口瓶颈令全球石油市场保持紧张。国际能源署(IEA)8月石油市场报告显示,7月份海湾石油产量继续回升,但出口路线再次中断,使得全球供应未能相应增加。中东产量仍比战前水平低8.3百万桶/日,但6月开始的回升因敌意行动再度爆发和海上中断而受到削弱。随着霍尔木兹海峡实际上再次关闭,区域石油装载量从7月初的约20百万桶/日大幅下降至当月晚些时候的约12百万桶/日。因此,IEA将其对Q3全球石油供应的预测下调了1.7百万桶/日,目前预计Q3全球石油市场将出现1.8百万桶/日的缺口。全球石油供应预计在2026下降4.3百万桶/日,随后在2027反弹8.3百万桶/日,达到110.3百万桶/日。展望未来,出口能力而非生产能力正成为海湾产油国的主要制约因素。霍尔木兹海峡的持久重新开放、炼油厂运营的正常化以及油轮装载的复苏,对于在Q4将上游产量的提高转化为更强的出口和财政收入至关重要。

EGA 目标在战争损害后于 Q1 2027 恢复生产。阿联酋环球铝业(EGA)旨在将 Al Taweelah 冶炼厂恢复至战前生产水平,时间点为 Q1 2027,此前因伊朗三月份的袭击受损,修复计划耗资 400 百万美元。该工厂此前年产量约为 1.5 百万吨,现已逐步恢复运营,活跃的生产槽数量从七月初的 7% 升至 18%。虽然恢复可能有助于缓解全球铝供应紧张,但出口增长仍受霍尔木兹海峡航运中断的制约,尽管部分使用了替代路线。铝价上涨帮助上半年调整后净利润同比增长 34% 至 670 百万美元。展望未来,Al Taweelah 重启的速度以及霍尔木兹海峡航运的正常化将是决定 EGA 能多快恢复出口量的关键,而 400 百万美元的维修费用也提前反映了海湾工业因冲突受损后重建成本的一个迹象。

日历 – 数据 / 事件 / 会议

国家 日期和时间 指标/事件 时期 共识值 前值 市场波动*

周二 8/13/2026 11:00 经常账户余额 六月 -5.00b -1.46b !!!

周日 8/13/2026 CPI 同比 七月 -- 1.80% !!!

来源:彭博,MUFG研究;* 彭博相关性评分,介于“!”、“!!”和“!!!”之间

第 3 页

3 13 八月 2026 E

市场指标

Stock markets Index Chg, % Sovereign bonds Yields, % G-S*, bp Chg, bp Coup, % Daily YTD Daily Daily YTD Regional Short-term bonds (1-2 years) MSCI GCC 748 0.30 1.79 Bahrain 2028 7.113 291.57 0.00 1.63 7.000 Bahrain 1,952 -0.20 -5.56 Kuwait 2027 4.473 53.98 0.00 0.20 3.500 Kuwait 10,375 0.34 19.40 Oman 2027 4.817 77.94 -0.01 0.30 6.750 Oman 7,482 0.20 27.53 Qatar 2028 4.581 45.04 0.01 0.63 4.500 Qatar 10,056 0.37 -6.57 KSA 2027 2.958 20.18 0.02 0.54 0.750 Saudi Arabia 10,844 0.10 3.37 UAE 2027 4.421 39.23 0.01 0.49 3.125 Dubai 5,920 0.69 -2.10 Egypt 2027 5.753 173.01 -0.02 -0.79 5.800 Abu Dhabi 10,013 0.05 0.20 Turkey 2027 5.439 142.00 0.01 0.18 8.600 Egypt 55,040 0.38 31.58 Israel 2027 3.185 57.91 0.03 0.33 1.500 Israel 4,206 1.13 15.82 Jordan 2027 5.033 112.86 -0.01 -0.69 5.750 Turkey 14,110 2.96 25.30 Jordan 200 -0.67 9.15 Medium-term bonds (3-5 years) Bahrain 2030 7.204 290.96 -0.02 1.33 7.375 Oman 2030 5.014 71.52 -0.01 0.67 4.875 International Qatar 2030 4.837 53.81 -0.01 0.81 9.750 MSCI World 5,009 0.26 13.05 KSA 2030 4.922 64.48 0.00 0.63 4.750 MSCI EM 1,682 0.99 19.76 UAE 2030 4.710 41.97 0.00 0.83 3.125 CSI 300 4,713 0.46 1.79 Egypt 2030 7.319 299.85 -0.04 -1.13 7.625 DAX 26,331 -0.23 7.52 Turkey 2030 6.383 207.96 0.00 0.33 9.125 DJIA 53,770 -0.04 11.87 Israel 2030 5.097 79.50 -0.01 0.36 2.750 EURO STOXX 50 6,534 -0.26 12.82 Jordan 2030 5.678 137.57 0.00 -0.58 5.850 FTSE 100 Index 10,833 -0.10 9.08 Nikkei 225 68,567 1.54 36.21 Long-term bonds (6+ years) S&P 500 7,749 0.26 13.19 Bahrain 2035 7.548 294.57 -0.01 -0.09 7.750 Qatar 2035 4.957 36.19 0.00 -0.06 4.875 3m interbank rates % Chg, bp KSA 2035 5.230 69.75 0.00 -0.04 5.000 Daily YTD UAE 2034 4.968 41.95 0.00 -0.05 5.000 Bahrain 5.16 -0.09 3.54 Turkey 2035 7.007 242.04 0.00 -0.04

6.500 Kuwait 3.56 0.00 0.00 Israel 2037 4.298 111.25 0.00 -0.02 2.375 UAE 3.85 -1.01 10.77 Qatar 4.15 1.19 4.37 International bonds (10 years) Saudi Arabia 4.89 2.79 0.59 US Treasury 4.677 --- -0.02 0.44 4.625 Turkey 16.01 0.00 0.00 German Bund 3.159 --- 0.00 0.48 3.000 SOFR 3.75 0.28 2.66 UK Gilt 4.970 --- 0.01 0.38 4.750 Japan Government Bond 2.861 --- 0.02 1.35 2.700 Exchange rates Rate Chg, % Daily YTD Commodities USD Chg, % USD/BHD 1yr fwd 174.50 2.65 -6.50 Daily YTD USD/KWD 1yr fwd -159.73 -4.06 18.09 Brent 100.30 -0.11 47.71 USD/OMR 1yr fwd 6.05 -39.50 -59.67 WTI 91.64 -0.23 45.73 USD/QAR 1yr fwd 5.56 13.70 -86.11 Gold 4,028 -0.16 1.89 USD/SAR 1yr fwd 81.00 -1.22 -77.01 Copper 13,595 -0.17 13.76 USD/AED 1yr fwd -18.50 2.63 50.72 Aluminium 3,188 -1.59 10.52 USD/EGP 1yr fwd 19.76 0.10 -12.70 EU natural gas 4,028 -0.16 1.89 USD/TRY 1yr fwd 40.25 -0.44 -10.74 US natural gas 62.55 -1.10 123.26 USD/ILS 1yr fwd -438.00 0.62 -211.97 Iron ore 98.15 -0.05 -11.09 Coal 227.00 1.53 4.27 Commodities (BCOM) 706.13 0.73 20.19 Energy (BCOMEN) 460.39 0.33 40.74 Base metals (BCOMIN) 174.46 -0.74 9.70 Precious metals (BCOMPR) 1,258.09 0.74 1.84 Agriculture (BCOMAG) 4,028 -0.16 1.89

来源:彭博,MUFG研究;* G-spread = 插值债券利差,相对于同货币主权债券曲线

第 4 页

4 13 八月 2026 免责声明

MUFG Bank, Ltd.(“MUFG Bank”)是一家在日本注册成立的有限责任股份公司,并在东京法务局注册(公司编号:0100-01- 008846)。MUFG Bank 的总部位于日本东京千代田区丸之内 4 -5 丁目 1 番地,邮编 100-8388,。

MUFG Bank 的伦敦分行已在英国公司注册处注册为英国机构(注册编号:BR002013)。MUFG Bank 由日本金融厅授权并监管。MUFG Bank 的伦敦分行由审慎监管局授权(FCA/PRA 编号:139189),并受金融行为监管局监管及审慎监管局的有限监管。有关 MUFG Bank 伦敦分行受审慎监管局监管范围的详细信息,可应要求提供。

MUFG Bank 的 DIFC 分行受迪拜金融服务管理局(DFSA)监管(许可证编号:F000470),其注册地址为阿联酋迪拜国际金融中心 The Gate 东翼 3, 层,邮政信箱 506614,。

机构免责声明
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(7) MUFG Securities (India) Private Limited (“MUS(INDIA)”) is a registered intermediary under the Securities and Exchange Boa rd of India (Merchant Bankers) Regulations, 1992 having registration number INM000013305.

AI 分析

由 AI 依据上文研报生成 · 非原文直译、非机构原话 · 重要判断请核对官网原文

多机构观点对比 · XAUUSD

机构 / 研报发布日期方向原文已核目标价时间范围
三菱日联金融集团中东日报2026/08/13看多—near-term
盛宝银行商品周报:黄金企稳,石油供应紧张与增长担忧令市场分化2026/10/16看多—未明确
华侨银行研究每日国债展望 · 要闻2026/10/16看多—未明确
加拿大丰业银行经济研究全球经济学 · 每日要点2026/10/16中性—未明确

本页如何生成

本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 MUFG 于 2026/08/13 发布的研报中提取并结构化,用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问,并已在上方完整展示。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正