引人入胜的相对价值图表：九月加息后的日本国债市场【固定收益评论】

关键论点

• 高市内阁成立后，日本国债收益率以10年期为主导上行，市场担忧日本央行落后于曲线，2s10s利差走阔，而非教科书式加息应有的平坦化。
• 逆转的触发因素是7月底日美协同买入日元干预，以及贝森特一系列被视为施压日本央行加快加息的言论。
• TONA/OIS定价从约每六个月加息一次，转向接近每季度一次的节奏，与多数主要国家大体一致。
• 逆转趋势能否延续取决于日本央行是否真正加快加息；9月17-18日会议、投票票数和植田基调是关键检验，若植田接受每季度加息定价，2s10s利差应继续收窄。

对应原文证据

1. Until now, JGB yields had been rising, particularly the 10-year sector (Graph 1), mainly driven by concerns over the risk that the BoJ could fall behind the curve.
2. A rise in market participants’ inflation expectations (10-year BEI [break- even inflation rate]), on the back of the view that the BoJ will continue to hike its policy interest rate at a gradual pace, have been driving up JGB yields (Graph 1, 2).
3. As we pointed out in our August 10, 2026 Fixed Income Commentary (“Intriguing RV graphs: Revisiting relationship between JGB yields and exchange rates”), Japan falling into a spiral of rising inflation expectations and yen depreciation may also have contributed to the higher JGB yields around the 10- year zone (Graph 1, 2). · 2026