印度：好事过头？· 外汇聚焦

关键论点

• 印度央行的外汇措施已吸引1360亿美元，外汇储备升至7850亿美元，银行体系流动性超过10万亿卢比，卢比面临的是流动性过剩而非短缺。
• MUFG预计印度央行本周期累计加息50个基点，回购利率到2026/27财年末升至5.75%，并有加息75个基点的风险，因增长有韧性、财政政策支持且通胀回升。
• 印度卢比OIS市场定价的加息次数和风险溢价过高；MUFG认为除非出现左尾情景，央行不会兑现这样的路径。
• 由于外国直接投资汇回和IPO发行带来强劲的美元需求，美元兑卢比仍将逐步走高，央行的措施只是降低了大幅贬值的尾部风险。

对应原文证据

1. ▪ Following RBI’s FX measures announced in June 2026 to support the Indian Rupee, the amount of Dollars attracted through the various facilities including FCNR(B) deposits now stands at a meaningful US$136bn as of 31 Aug, and likely still rising as we speak (see RBI June 2026 Measures - Shoring up the Indian Rupee ). · June 2026
2. As of 4 September, RBI’s stock of FX reserves stood at US$785bn, up from US$686bn before RBI announced the FX measures, with a minority portion of these inflows likely going to maturing some of RBI’s short FX forward positions and also spot FX intervention to support INR.
3. We see some risk that the RBI could deliver 75bps of hikes in this cycle.