Combined 2026年9月4日

关键论点

• 美元/日元最新周跌幅为2月初以来最大，且非干预驱动，表明动能可能转变。
• 日本央行委员高田创暗示加快紧缩，可能连续加息，但加息50个基点可能性不大。
• 日元空头头寸（干预前18.5万份合约）仍有进一步平仓空间。
• GPIF可能调整资产配置，增加日元需求。
• 欧洲央行预计加息25个基点，但可能不承诺进一步加息，增加欧元下行风险。
• 下周美国CPI对美联储决策至关重要；尽管非农强劲，美元/日元仍遭抛售，显示日元动能。
• 零售保证金交易者在7月创纪录做空后，本周可能转为买入日元。
• 期权流动显示投资者在短期和更长期限内都在为日元走强布局。

对应原文证据

1. The EUR could weaken modestly next week if President Lagarde does not endorse market expectations for another rate hike before year-end. · next week
2. Based on short-term fundamental drivers, including energy prices, we would expect EUR/USD to be trading closer to the lower end of its recent 1.1400 to 1.1800 range. · short-term
3. Downside risks for the EUR would increase if European natural gas prices continue to rise heading into the winter, particularly if accompanied by signs that the euro-zone economy is becoming less resilient to higher energy costs. · medium-term