“负责任的积极财政政策”能否遏制日本国债收益率上升？【固定收益评论 - 日本经济与金融周报】

关键论点

• 预计10年期日本国债收益率在10月将维持高位并偏向上行。
• 市场对日本央行收紧货币政策过慢的担忧可能持续。
• 预计美联储将于10月28日加息25个基点，而日本央行料将在10月29-30日会议上按兵不动，符合市场共识。
• 财政政策是关键：若无法提出市场参与者可接受的融资方案，对财政状况恶化的担忧可能推高10年期日本国债收益率。

对应原文证据

1. (original Japanese report issued on October 2, 2026) We expect the 10-year JGB yield to remain elevated and trade with an upward bias in October. · 2026
2. We anticipate another 25bp rate hike from the Fed on October 28 and assume that markets will gradually price this in.
3. However, we expect the BoJ to hold at the October 29-30 Monetary Policy Meeting, which comes immediately after the FOMC meeting, in line with the latest market consensus.