日本央行未能满足市场的鹰派预期外汇每日快照

关键论点

• 日本央行满足鹰派利率预期的门槛本就偏低，25bp加息至1.25%恰好令市场失望，使日元承压。
• 删除“实际利率为负”的表述仅是日央行承认前端利率显著上升（2年期JGB收益率上升35bp）且通胀低于2%目标。
• 植田暗示“政策操作阶段已改变”，意味着紧缩步伐可能调整，但未设定具体节奏。
• 英国央行的QT调整有助于抑制长端Gilt收益率，从而限制英镑下跌带来的负面外汇冲击。

对应原文证据

1. But the trigger for the initial yen sell-off following the announcement at 3:54 BST does likely simply reflect the fact that recent speculation, including talk of the potential for 50bp moves, was overdone.
2. This is really just the BoJ acknowledging facts –the move up in front-end rates has been notable (2yr JGB yield is 35bps higher since the last BoJ meeting) and with inflation currently below the 2.0% target the description of “low” rather than “negative” makes sense.
3. 30-YEAR GILT HAD BEEN OUTPERFORMING BEFORE YESTERDAY Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, MUFG Research GBP: BoE surprises markets with updated QT plan There was only 2bps of hikes priced for the BoE announcement yesterday, so the unchanged policy announcement was no surprise.