亚洲外汇评论 · 美联储偏鹰派评论减少，美国收益率下降

关键论点

• 威廉姆斯语气偏鸽，带动美国2年期收益率下行约5个基点至4.88%、10月加息概率回落，但巴尔与穆萨勒姆维持紧缩倾向。
• 美国就业数据偏软（职位空缺710万、消费者信心81.9）挑战但未逆转市场对美联储偏鹰的重新定价，2年期收益率仍近5%。
• MUFG认为中国贸易顺差、科技板块情绪与政策支持利好人民币；“六张网”项目加快执行应会逐步收窄两类PMI差距。
• 澳洲联储一致加息25个基点至4.60%，凸显区域政策两难：能源成本高企，而澳洲通胀、消费与楼市已在放缓。

对应原文证据

1. In particular, he said that one more interest rate hike “late this year” may be appropriate to help contain inflation, while saying that there was no urgency to act following the Fed’s decision to lift rates earlier this month if the economy evolves in amanner broadly consistent with his forecast. · this year
2. Broader Fedspeak were overall consistent with further interest rate increases through the cycle, with Fed Governor Barr repeating a warning that further adjustments are likely needed to ensure that inflation comes down to target in a timeline fashion, while St Louis Fed President Musalem said interest rates are still not high enough to weigh on economic growth.
3. US job openings fell to 7.1mn in August, below the 7.2mn expected, while consumer confidence declined to 81.9 in September from 88.6 (lowest level since, pointing to greater caution among employers and households.