亚洲外汇观察 · 联邦公开市场委员会决议临近，油价与美债收益率维持高位

关键论点

• 美债收益率上升和油价高企主导市场情绪，广泛压低亚洲货币兑美元汇率。
• 美联储面临艰难取舍：持续的通胀风险对比政府债务付息成本上升及住房等利率敏感部门承压。
• MUFG对泰铢保持谨慎，因泰国严重依赖进口能源、贸易条件恶化且投资组合资金流动疲软。
• 在财政部领导层变动后，MUFG对印尼盾亦保持谨慎；布伦特原油高于100美元推升燃料补贴成本，并对将预算赤字控制在GDP 3%以下的承诺构成挑战。

对应原文证据

1. Escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to threaten energy supply chains, with attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and disruptions to key transport routes adding upside risks to oil prices.
2. Rising oil import costs, deteriorating terms of trade and weaker portfolio flows leave the baht exposed to further downside in our view.
3. Maintaining the government's commitment to keeping the budget deficit below 3% of GDP may require additional expenditure restraint elsewhere.