能源市场在地缘政治与气候变化之间徘徊

关键论点

• 全球原油缺口小于预期，因非欧佩克供应具有韧性、需求破坏以及战略储备释放。
• 中东物流中断预计将持续至2027年中期，使价格风险偏向上行。
• 欧洲天然气库存为2021-2022年危机以来最低，TTF价格在接下来的冬季月份预计将保持高位。
• 由于伊朗战争，欧盟液化天然气进口下降，并可能在2027年欧盟对俄罗斯液化天然气长期合同的禁令生效时进一步收缩。
• 美联储可能再次加息至4.00%，而欧洲央行可能实施第二次25个基点加息至2.50%。
• 由于强劲的季节性需求、海湾地区炼油厂受损以及中国和俄罗斯的出口限制，成品油价格表现优于原油。

对应原文证据

1. Despite the energy shock caused by the war in Iran, global economic growth is holding well and, in most countries, inflation is lower than feared in early March.
2. This resilience of the global energy system represent a cap to crude oil prices , limiting their upside potential.
3. Unfortunately, given the distance in negotiation positions between the US, Israel and Iran and the recent escalation in attacks against vessels and infrastructures, we assume that logistic disruptions across the Middle East will persist until mid -2027 . · 2027