宏观 · 宏观快速反应 美联储FOMC：偏鹰派转变

关键论点

• FOMC以全票通过加息25个基点至3.75-4.00%，声明比预期更鹰派，删除供给冲击表述，并以通胀“更及时”回归2%作为加息理由。
• 9月经济预测上调通胀并认为其更持久，2%目标回归推迟至2029年；点阵图中值暗示2026年再加息一次，2027年不降息，2028年起才宽松。
• 点阵图显示18名委员中16人预计年底前至少再加息一次，12人预计再加25个基点、4人预计加两次；无人预计降息。
• Intesa Sanpaolo预计年底前第二次加息至4.00-4.25%，最可能在12月，并认为其自身路径不如市场定价鹰派，尤其是12个月维度。

对应原文证据

1. FOMC: Hawkish Shift The September FOMC meeting concluded, as expected, with a 25-basis-point hike in the federal funds rate target to 3.75 –4.00%, decided unanimously and accompanied by a more hawkish-than-expected message.
2. The statement removes the reference to supply shocks as an explanation for inflation and justifies the tightening with the need for a “timelier” return to 2%, without providing forward guidance on upcoming moves.
3. The new Summary of Economic Projections show inflation that is slightly higher and, above all, more persistent, with a return to the target not expected until 2029, and a rate path consistent with another hike by year-end and rate cuts postponed until 2028 and beyond. · 2029