THINK Ahead：欧洲通胀今冬可能恶化到何种程度

关键论点

• 油气价格已超过欧洲央行六周前设定的“不利”情景；天然气如今在多数时候仍决定欧洲边际电价。
• 按百分比计，本轮气价涨幅已超过乌克兰冲击的同期水平，家庭能源账单可能要到冬季之后才见顶。
• 食品是主要不确定性：欧元区食品通胀仅1.1%，但欧洲央行预计明年夏季将升至约3.5%，因干旱与厄尔尼诺影响尚未显现。
• 能源密集型通胀分项约滞后能源六个月；目前仍无第二轮效应证据，也不在ING基准情景之内。

对应原文证据

1. James Smith looks at how it could top 5% this winter This is how bad European inflation could get this winter It’s a sign of the times that energy prices are not the top talking point at next week’s European Central Bank meeting. · next week
2. France, surging bond yields, and what the ECB might do about all that will take centre stage.
3. Here in the UK, the latest predictions for the household energy price cap, which is intrinsically linked to wholesale gas prices, suggest electricity and gas bills will rise a whopping 25% in January.