土耳其央行维持利率不变，释放继续谨慎信号

关键论点

• 土耳其央行将1周期回购利率维持在37%，并将利率走廊维持在40%/35.5%，符合市场普遍预期。
• 美伊地缘政治紧张重燃推高能源价格，加大了9月通胀反弹的风险。
• 政府将2027年通胀预测从9%上调至21%，意味着2023年中启动的稳定计划中反通胀进程进一步推迟。
• 央行确信国内需求疲弱以及供给冲击传导有限，正在阻止广泛的第二轮效应。
• 前瞻指引维持审慎的逐次会议决策方式，并对进一步收紧持开放态度，宏观审慎与流动性管理措辞未变。
• ING预计2026年底政策利率为35%，第四季度进行两次100个基点降息，并关注中东冲突、通胀、需求状况、国际储备及储户行为。

对应原文证据

1. The decision was widely expected and suggests the central bank remains concerned about geopolitical risks, despite easing underlying inflation pressures and subdued domestic demand.
2. The CBT has continued to keep an eye on both the growth and inflation outlook.
3. In the September statement, it does not provide a specific analysis phrase but adds a general sentence that: “Despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation figures and leading indicators suggest that the underlying trend of inflation is decelerating." Regarding the forward guidance, the CBT reiterated a prudent meeting‑by‑meeting approach and kept the door open to further tightening if needed.