大宗商品每日观察：布伦特风险溢价随海湾局势再升级担忧升温

关键论点

• 布伦特上涨反映的是供给端地缘政治溢价，而非当前基本面。
• 有关美国可能再度打击伊朗、部署第二艘航母及撤军的报道，动摇了ING此前对局势降温的判断。
• 黄金交易逻辑聚焦于油价推升的通胀及政策收紧风险，而非避险需求。
• 铜价受LME库存上升及AI股抛售拖累的风险偏好走弱压制。

对应原文证据

1. Markets are increasingly worried about renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf, a scenario that could threaten oil flows that have so far remained remarkably resilient.
2. European gas prices also remain extremely sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, with LNG flows increasingly likely to be largely absent from the market for at least much of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
3. Metals — Gold falls as energy risks reignite inflation concerns Gold prices failed to benefit from yesterday's equity sell-off and the significant fall in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield falling back below 5%.