利率火花：繁忙一周前难获喘息

关键论点

• 美国10年期国债收益率向5.25%-5.5%区间的超调仍在持续，主要由实际收益率上升驱动，而非通胀预期——通胀预期依然受控。
• 疲软的5年期和7年期国债拍卖引发收益率跟随上行，10年期突破5.1%并逼近5.2%。
• 长端债券仍面临纯债务动态带来的上行压力，意味着互换利差可能重新走阔，尤其是在10年期领域。
• 鉴于不确定性仍存，市场对欧洲央行未来一年加息100个基点的定价显得过于激进，尽管欧洲央行承认面临不利能源市场情景而宏观仍具韧性。

对应原文证据

1. The front end paused after valuations looked stretched, but resilient macro data, elevated energy prices and inflation pressures generally continue to pressure yields higher Bearish sentiment continues for long-end bonds The rate hike discount looks extreme, but long bond yields can remain under pressure The US 7yr auction tailed moderately.
2. Which is important, as this is not shielded by the Fed hiking rates, which could be the case if we had an inflation expectations issue.
3. Thursday saw US$4.1bn bought back in the latest reverse auction, but we're not of the opinion that the market should be overly concerned with this, in the sense that it's not a negative.