持有货币市场组合：欧元货币市场按预期收紧

关键论点

• ECB面临能源市场压力再起与经济增长韧性的局面，推动短端利率定价未来一年三到四次加息。
• 我们预计ECB仅再加息一次，存款便利利率升至2.75%，但这取决于美国中期选举后地缘政治紧张局势缓解。
• 新操作框架旨在实现自平衡体系，随着过剩流动性下降，回购利率向主要再融资操作利率靠拢。
• 融资市场已在收紧：€STR上移，回购活动增加，6个月Euribor/€STR-OIS显示银行支付溢价以避免ECB污名。

对应原文证据

1. We think this is too much and expect only one more hike from the ECB, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.75%.
2. Current estimates suggest banks may wish to operate with somewhere between €1.5tr and €2tr of excess liquidity, although uncertainty remains substantial because observed reserve demand under the new framework is untested.
3. Nevertheless, these estimates suggest that repo funding rates could begin to rise more noticeably from late 2026 into 2027. · 2026