Fx daily staring at the geopolitical headlights

关键论点

• 高能源价格和未被完全定价的美联储支持美元，美元指数可能在99.00-99.50区间内上行。
• 美元兑日元在155面临阻力，预计将在该水平上方盘整。
• 欧元兑美元预计在1.1580-1.1640区间内窄幅波动，在欧央行会议前偏向下行。
• 中东欧市场对加息的定价过度；央行偏鸽派的言论应会令这些押注回撤，从而压制货币。
• 美元兑韩元从低点反弹，在国民年金公团消息后可能出现盘整。

对应原文证据

1. We prefer to back the themes of higher energy prices and an under-priced Fed giving some support to the dollar in the near term. The US Labor Day public holiday will limit activity today, but DXY can probably drift higher in a 99.00-99.50 range. · short-term
2. Here, we continue to see 155 as a big level in USD/JPY, above which some more consolidation should be due. · short-term
3. The main event of the week, however, will be Thursday's ECB meeting, where we see some downside risks to the euro. Expect EUR/USD to trade a tight 1.1580-1.1640 range today, with our bias to the downside. · short-term