外汇日报：风险偏向美元走强

关键论点

• 在凯文·沃什领导下的美联储，鉴于通胀粘性和经济强劲，很可能会在9月加息。
• 能源价格上涨推高了鹰派加息预期，从而支持美元。
• 财政担忧和潜在的国债市场干预是一个风险，但周期性的美联储政策故事应占主导。
• 欧元兑美元因美联储更加鹰派和能源价格走高而面临阻力，存在下行至1.15的风险。
• 日本央行鹰派仍是少数；由于美联储政策占主导，美元兑日元可能保持在160/162区间。
• 预计加拿大央行将维持利率不变，1月会议前有适度的加息预期。
• 北美贸易紧张给加元前景蒙上阴影，支持美元兑加元上行。
• 欧元兑美元有适度的折价，美元兑瑞郎有上行目标。

对应原文证据

1. As Francesco Pesole highlighted yesterday, there remain fears that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will dip into his large toolkit again to support the bond market and traders will look to hit a bid in USD/CHF to express the dollar debasement trade.
2. But the new baseline seems to be that the Fed will, after all, hike rates in September.
3. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it reasonably clear that inflation is not falling quickly enough to target and, given a reasonably strong economy, the Fed will need to act.