FX Daily: 美元修正的门槛很高

关键论点

• 债券市场脆弱且美联储鹰派，美元获得支撑，回调短暂。
• 法国财政溢价抑制欧元/美元上行，可能测试1.110/1.112。
• 加拿大就业反弹支持加拿大央行12月加息，但10月行动为时过早。
• 波兰央行11月不太可能加息，紧缩推迟至2027年。

对应原文证据

1. French premium isn’t likely to leave the euro very soon, and risks remain of a test of 1.110 in the near term. · near-term
2. In Canada, jobs numbers should have improved in September, but an October hike looks premature A hawkish Fed and fragile market sentiment should support a slightly stronger dollar near term USD: Upside risks persist The dollar lost a bit of ground yesterday as Treasuries took a breather, but we don’t see signs of a broader USD correction brewing. · near-term
3. US President Donald Trump has said the US won’t attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, but the oil market is reluctant to price out the geopolitical premium that has kept prices above $100/bbl despite improved Gulf supply.