外汇日报：鹰派浪潮今日将冲击斯堪的纳维亚

关键论点

• DXY升破101.0后相对基本面显得过度；除非美国数据意外迫使市场完全定价10月美联储加息，否则预计将回调至100-100.5。
• 欧元/美元跌破1.140属于过度低估，因短期利差走势利好欧元；1.1430-1.1450更符合当前环境。
• 预计瑞典央行按兵不动但暗示即将收紧，11月加息及更高的利率预测在望；瑞典克朗上行需油价走低和风险情绪稳定。
• 挪威央行决策接近，但预计加息25个基点；市场仅定价16个基点，为挪威克朗留出上行空间；这被视为本轮周期最后一次加息。

对应原文证据

1. Meanwhile, the dollar rally has accelerated, and the move is starting to look stretched We expect the Riksbank to deliver a hawkish hold today USD: Rally starting to look stretched The dollar jumped yesterday, with DXY breaking above 101.0.
2. Very strong US PMIs, higher oil prices and soft risk sentiment have all contributed to the bullish narrative, although the move is starting to look stretched relative to fundamentals.
3. We are cautious in calling for a bottom in the dollar just yet because any upside surprise in upcoming US data releases can easily prompt markets to fully price in an October Fed hike and prop up short-term rates even more. · short-term