FX每日：美联储会议纪要应不会掀起波澜

关键论点

• 9月FOMC会议纪要不太可能带来鸽派意外，因点阵图显示更多成员预期今年进一步加息两次（4人）而非不再收紧（2人）。
• 会后美国数据疲软提高了美元正面反应的门槛，但市场仍坚定定价12月加息。
• 欧元反弹因油价上涨而失去动力，今日风险是回落至1.1150/1.1180。
• 波兰央行预计维持利率3.75%不变，鸽派立场将与市场预期的约100个基点收紧形成对比，令兹罗提承压至4.380上方。

对应原文证据

1. At the same time, softish post-meeting data probably raise the bar for a positive dollar reaction today.
2. Stubbornly high oil prices continue to reflect concerns about further disruptions, even as actual oil flows have improved.
3. With few signs of an imminent deal, energy prices should remain a drag on any meaningful recovery in bonds and, by extension, on a decline in the dollar.