FX Daily：共识性美联储加息仍可为美元提供支撑

关键论点

• 市场预期美联储加息25个基点至4.0%；若意外按兵不动，将通过前端利率重定价和美债抛售显著削弱美元。
• 美联储可能意识到对美债市场的不利影响，因此按兵不动概率低，并倾向于鹰派表态；出现鸽派异议的可能性不大。
• 沃什对进一步紧缩持开放态度，可通过强化政策可信度并抵消贬值风险溢价来支撑美元。
• 能源价格走强和科技股疲软不利于建立大规模美元空头；除非出现重大鸽派意外，市场可能淡化美元的负面反应。

对应原文证据

1. But that’s a small risk, as the FOMC is likely mindful of any adverse Treasury-market implications.
2. Openness to further hikes by Warsh can leave the dollar broadly supported A Federal Reserve hike of 25bp is widely expected today USD: Warsh can give dollar a bit more help We expect the Fed to raise rates by a consensus 25bp to 4.0% today.
3. A surprise hold would likely deliver a big blow to the dollar: both through the dovish repricing in front-end rates and a likely selloff in the back end.