法国政局动荡令欧洲央行进退两难

关键论点

• 法国引发的债券市场紧缩在德国约相当于加息25个基点、在法国接近50个基点，债市已在替代欧洲央行执行紧缩。
• 欧洲央行大概率在10月29日按兵不动，将加息推迟至12月，届时将有新的员工预测和更清晰的能源传导证据。
• 由于启动传导保护工具（TPI）可能被视为对不合规法国的货币融资，预计欧洲央行将采取三管齐下：偏鸽的利率立场、暂停缩表并灵活再投资、仅在传染加剧时启用TPI。

对应原文证据

1. Instead, the French crisis is increasingly eroding the need for additional rate hikes With the surge in bond yields on the back of the crisis in France, we expect the ECB to remain on hold at next week's meeting Back in September, the ECB surprised markets with a more hawkish message, at least between the lines. · next week
2. With headline inflation higher for longer and core inflation expected to increase in 2027, the stage seemed set for at least one more rate hike at the December meeting. · 2027
3. Last but not least, should contagion in eurozone bond markets intensify, we expect the3.