捷克信心指向低于趋势的扩张

关键论点

• 消费者信心回升更像修正，而非自去年11月以来走弱趋势的转折。
• 企业信心下降与服务业饱和、以及此前支撑工业的霍尔木兹相关提前备货开始消退相符。
• 面对投入成本上升和中国竞争，企业不太可能维持慷慨加薪，实际工资增长应会放缓。
• 增长结构从强劲的家庭消费与平庸的制造业表现，转向较弱的消费与更强的工业产出。

对应原文证据

1. The consumer confidence indicator rose by 2.8 points to 105.1 in September, stronger than market participants had expected.
2. It should be noted that neither consumer nor business confidence is at levels consistent with strong economic performance, such as in the period just before the pandemic, when the economy was expanding at around 3%.
3. Stronger inflation will reduce real wage gains Looking ahead, we expect firms’ profitability to come under pressure due to increasing input costs combined with severe global (predominantly Chinese) competition.