印尼央行按兵不动，但加息周期可能尚未结束

关键论点

• 印尼央行维持利率于5.75%，选择定向市场措施而非加息来吸引资金流入并支持印尼盾。
• 受新财长上任后的政策确定性及2026年预算框架基本不变支撑，外资已连续四个月净买入印尼债券。
• 外部脆弱性持续：外商直接投资低迷、经常账户赤字预计扩大，且外汇储备下降削弱干预能力。
• ING预计年底前再加息25个基点，原因是汇率稳定需要以及燃料价格和厄尔尼诺带来的通胀风险。

对应原文证据

1. Rupiah and inflation risks keep tightening on the table While investor sentiment has improved, Indonesia's external accounts remain a key source of vulnerability.
2. At the same time, upside risks to inflation from higher fuel prices and a severe El Niño could add to domestic price pressures.
3. We therefore continue to expect one additional 25bp rate hike before year-end.